Dom: Prediction Genius? You decide.

The following is an email (allegedly) from Dom about the All Blacks versus South Africa last weekend. Note that in gambling lingo putting in a forward slash (/) symbolizes halftime, (i.e. X/Y means team X leads at the half but team Y wins).

-----Original Message-----
From: Dom Gibbs
Sent: Friday, 22 June 2007 10:23 am
Subject: Tri-Nations

I had a dream the abs won 70-7. might venture a private bet.

In my opinion the boks 12 and under is the hedging bet. NZ have had the goods on SA over the last couple of years. Despite that 22-21 loss last year which was an anomaly. I mean we gave them a lesson in the other games. Apart from the locks its the same team.

We havent gotten any worse. We have played down at the level of France C and Canada so I think a top team will bring out a top performance.

But at home and full of confidence the boks will come out strong. Thats why I like the boks/blacks as the best bet.

They will be weaker without Smit and Dan can do dropgoals just as good as them.

The 'second-string' Boks

So, Jake White is taking the chance to do his own spot of reconditioning, and resting and recuperating his top 20 players from the Tri-Nations squad headed to Australia and New Zealand.

Now, of course, we all know Graham Henry was successful in getting 22 NZ players out of their respective Super 14 squads for the first half of that competition earlier this year for a spot of 'reconditioning'. Despite the wailing and gnashing of teeth, this still didn't stop the Crusaders and Blues from making the semis (where they lost, with their full contingent of All Blacks at hand), and Waikato likewise went close to to the top 4. In other words, the NZ teams were still competitive.

This South African side won't be. While they might push the Aussies, they are going to get thumped by the All Blacks.

One of the arguments for the move is that "the All Blacks have been doing it for years!" Witness this statement from Gerard O'Neill on the NZ Herald "Your Views" page...

This is all a bit rich isn't it? Didn't John Mitchell take a NZ C team to Britain a few seasons ago?

Did he? A "C" team? In the last overseas tour to Europe before the 2003 World Cup, the squad included the likes of Jonah Lomu, Christian Cullen, Andrew Mehrtens, Doug Howlett, Keith Robinson, Kees Meeuws and Ali Williams. We were, admittedly, a little lighter in the forwards than usual, but it was hardly 'C' squad - hardly even a 'B' squad really - and didn't stop the team from being competitive. We only lost by three points to the eventual World Cup champions England, drew with France (despite the ABs being shown three yellow cards), and thumped Wales. I don't think anyone really expects the South African team headed our way now to be a challenge to the All Blacks, who just beat the 'A' squad (minus several top players, admittedly), at Durban. Australia, maybe, but not the All Blacks. (We could, of course, be proven horribly wrong, which, if anything, would throw Jake White into more of a quandary - if his 'B' team can beat the ABs, why would he change a winning formula going into the World Cup?)

There is a difference between resting players but still sending a competitive squad (as per the 2002 All Blacks to Europe), and pulling your entire top squad and sending a 'B' team to the slaughter (as per the current SA squad headed to the Antipodes).

And it's probably going to be counter-productive anyway. The 'reconditioned' All Blacks only seem to be hitting their straps now, after half a season of Super 14 and a handful of test matches. How are the top South African players going to fare after no competitive games for a couple of months, the usual soft World Cup pool matches, and then the do-or-die intensity of the knock-out stages.

We shall see, I suppose. In the meantime, let's just enjoy watching the All Blacks dent some South African pride by giving the Bokke new boys and recalled old hands a rugby lesson on July 14.

South Africa v. All Blacks, Tri-Nations 2007: video highlights

Final Score: South Africa 21 - 26 New Zealand



Date: 23rd June, 2007
Location: Absa Stadium, Durban, South Africa
Crowd size: 51,861

SOUTH AFRICA: Montgomery; Willemse (Olivier 66), Fourie, De Villiers, Pietersen; James (Steyn 52), Pienaar; Du Randt (Van der Linde53), G Botha, BJ Botha (Muller 66), B Botha, Matfield (capt), Burger, Rossouw, Skinstad (Wannenburg 52)

Tries: Burger, James
Conversion: Montgomery
Penalties: Montgomery 2, Pienaar

NEW ZEALAND: Muliaina (MacDonald 70); Rokocoko, Toeava (McAlister 67), Mauger, Sivivatu; Carter, Kelleher (Weepu 69); Woodcock, Oliver (Mealamu 51), Hayman, Flavell, Rawlinson (Filipo 45), Collins, McCaw (capt), So'oialo

Tries: McCaw, Rokocoko
Converions: Carter 2
Penalties: Carter 3
Drop goal: Mauger

Christian Cullen - could get out of Hampden Court Maze...

A quick flashback to a piece of Christian Cullen seven's magic...

The Dropkicks - 2007 - Episode 20

The Dropkicks look back on the brave Canadian showing against the All Blacks, the thrilling encounter between Australia and South Africa, look ahead to the NZ Netball Championship final, reminisce on the NBA Finals, the US Open and various other sporting events.

Download Episode 2007/20.